2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ BUF – Week 5 2022
PIT
BUF
PIT
AWAY
3@38
BUF +35
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 70%Projected margin: 6.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 35. Off by 28.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -749 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7SEASON PPR
George Pickens
WR
166.5SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
395.5SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
316.6SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PITW13 2025 | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW1 2021 | PIT 23, BUF 16 | BUF | L |
| PIT@BUFW14 2020 | PIT 15, BUF 26 | BUF | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES