Steelers vs Bills – Week 5 2022
PIT
BUF
PIT
AWAY
3@38
BUF BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 3, Buffalo Bills 38.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 5 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 70%Our line: BUF -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.012Net EPA / play+0.168
+0.012 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
+0.024 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
45.1% (12)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 35. Off by 27.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PITW13 2025 | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW1 2021 | PIT 23, BUF 16 | BUF | L |
| PIT@BUFW14 2020 | PIT 15, BUF 26 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.2. The market has BUF at -14.0.
Buffalo Bills won, PIT 3, BUF 38. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -14.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 5, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 3.9 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 26, PIT 7 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: PIT -0.012 against BUF +0.168.
