Texans vs Jaguars – Week 5 2022
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
13@6
HOU BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 6.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 67%Our line: JAX -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.067
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (8)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.021 (13)
36.9% (32)Offense success %46.3% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but HOU won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 13.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.0. The market has JAX at -7.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 13, JAX 6. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -7.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 3.0 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: HOU -0.192 against JAX +0.067.
