Cowboys vs Rams – Week 5 2022
DAL
LA
DAL
AWAY
22@10
DAL BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 22, Los Angeles Rams 10.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 4 Rams.
Model confidence: DAL 61%Our line: DAL -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.012 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (29)
-0.097 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (24)
44.6% (15)Offense success %41.0% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 12. Off by 8.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@DALW8 2023 | LA 20, DAL 43 | DAL | W |
| DAL@LAW1 2020 | DAL 17, LA 20 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs LA
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.8. The market has DAL at +5.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 22, LA 10. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +5.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 5, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 4.2 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, LA 20, DAL 43 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against LA -0.105.
