2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ NO – Week 5 2022
SEA
NO
SEA
AWAY
32@39
NO +7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SEA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SEA 60%Projected margin: -1.5
SEA
PICK SIDE
+5.5
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
+221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but NO won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +5.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +201 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
303.9SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
239.3SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
226.8SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@SEAW3 2025 | NO 13, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| NO@SEAW7 2021 | NO 13, SEA 10 | NO | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES