Seahawks vs Saints – Week 5 2022
SEA
NO
SEA
AWAY
32@39
NO BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 32, New Orleans Saints 39.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Seahawks, 5 Saints.
Model confidence: SEA 60%Our line: SEA -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA +5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -3.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.003 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.020 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
44.2% (17)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but NO won. Projected margin was 3.4, the model overestimated by 10.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@SEAW3 2025 | NO 13, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| NO@SEAW7 2021 | NO 13, SEA 10 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs NO
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.4. The market has SEA at +5.5.
New Orleans Saints won, SEA 32, NO 39. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at +5.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 5, the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.8, 3.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, NO 13, SEA 44 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: SEA -0.023 against NO +0.018.
