Titans vs Commanders – Week 5 2022
TEN
WAS
TEN
AWAY
21@17
TEN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 21, Washington Commanders 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Titans, 4 Commanders.
Model confidence: TEN 69%Our line: TEN -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -6.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.003
-0.059 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
+0.004 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
41.1% (22)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 6.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@WASW13 2024 | TEN 19, WAS 42 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs WAS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.6. The market has TEN at -1.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 21, WAS 17. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -1.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 5, the Tennessee Titans were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 4.5 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, TEN 19, WAS 42 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: TEN -0.064 against WAS -0.003.
