TEN @ WAS – Week 5 2022
TEN
WAS
TEN
AWAY
21@17
TEN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 69%Our line: TEN -6.6
TEN
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.6
OUR LINE
-219
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.003
-0.059Offense EPA / play-0.078
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.075
41.1%Offense success %40.4%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 6.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -110 | -100 |
| Our fair price | -219 | +219 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.87
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8 SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2 SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
117.7 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1538 yd · 13 TD
Dontrell Hilliard145 yd · 0 TD
Malik Willis123 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
Chig Okonkwo32 rec · 450 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@WASW13 2024 | TEN 19, WAS 42 | WAS | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.6. The market has TEN at -1.0.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, TEN 19, WAS 42 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: TEN -0.064 against WAS -0.003.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
