Dolphins vs Jets – Week 5 2022
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
17@40
NYJ BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 17, New York Jets 40.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: MIA 69%Our line: MIA -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -6.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.039Net EPA / play-0.036
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.087 (27)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
44.5% (16)Offense success %39.0% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.9, the model overestimated by 29.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NYJ
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 6.9. The market has MIA at -3.0.
New York Jets won, MIA 17, NYJ 40. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 5, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.1 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against NYJ -0.036.
