2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NYJ – Week 5 2022
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
17@40
NYJ +23
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 69%Projected margin: -5.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.1 -- the model overestimated by 28.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9SEASON PPR
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES