2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ NYJ – Week 13 2025
ATL
NYJ
ATL
AWAY
24@27
NYJ +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 65%Projected margin: -1.9
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but NYJ won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
201.9SEASON PPR
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NYJW13 2023 | ATL 13, NYJ 8 | ATL | W |
| NYJ@ATLW5 2021 | NYJ 20, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES