Falcons vs Jets – Week 13 2025
ATL
NYJ
ATL
AWAY
24@27
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 24, New York Jets 27.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 1 Jets.
Model confidence: ATL 65%Our line: ATL -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.021 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
-0.004 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
43.7% (18)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.3, the model overestimated by 8.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NYJW13 2023 | ATL 13, NYJ 8 | ATL | W |
| NYJ@ATLW5 2021 | NYJ 20, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NYJ
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 5.3. The market has ATL at -3.0.
New York Jets won, ATL 24, NYJ 27. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 6.4 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 13, NYJ 8 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.018 against NYJ -0.274.
