Chiefs vs Cowboys – Week 13 2025
KC
DAL
KC
AWAY
28@31
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 28, Dallas Cowboys 31.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chiefs, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 50%Our line: DAL +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.035 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
-0.020 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
44.5% (14)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 3. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 0.0. The market has DAL at +3.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, KC 28, DAL 31. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 7.1 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, THU 4:30 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DAL 9, KC 19 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.055 against DAL -0.070.
