2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ DAL – Week 13 2025
KC
DAL
KC
AWAY
28@31
DAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DAL 50%Projected margin: 0.3
DAL
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 0.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +165 | Won · +$1.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@KCW11 2021 | DAL 9, KC 19 | KC | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES