Packers vs Vikings – Week 11 2021
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
31@34
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 31, Minnesota Vikings 34.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Packers, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: GB 60%Our line: GB -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.127Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.134 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.017 (16)
+0.006 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (12)
48.6% (3)Offense success %41.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 6.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW1 2026 | GB 22, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs MIN
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 3.3. The market has GB at -1.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, GB 31, MIN 34. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -1.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 11, the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 0.4 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, GB 22, MIN 39 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.127 against MIN +0.035.
