2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ IND – Week 6 2025
ARI
IND
ARI
AWAY
27@31
IND +4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 72%Projected margin: 6.3
IND
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 6.3. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.29 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@ARIW16 2021 | IND 22, ARI 16 | IND | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES