Cardinals vs Colts – Week 6 2025
ARI
IND
ARI
AWAY
27@31
IND BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 27, Indianapolis Colts 31.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 72%Our line: IND -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.018 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
+0.088 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
43.0% (22)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 4. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@ARIW16 2021 | IND 22, ARI 16 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 7.8. The market has IND at -8.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, ARI 27, IND 31. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -8.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 6, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 0.0 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 22, ARI 16 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: ARI -0.107 against IND +0.068.
