Rams vs Ravens – Week 6 2025
LA
BAL
LA
AWAY
17@3
LA BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 17, Baltimore Ravens 3.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Rams, 6 Ravens.
Model confidence: LA 64%Our line: LA -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.206Net EPA / play+0.010
+0.145 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (12)
-0.061 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
51.8% (1)Offense success %44.6% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 14. Off by 9.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@BALW14 2023 | LA 31, BAL 37 | BAL | W |
| LA@BALW17 2021 | LA 20, BAL 19 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs BAL
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 4.7. The market has LA at -7.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 17, BAL 3. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -7.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 6, the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 1.2 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, LA 31, BAL 37 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against BAL +0.010.
