LA @ BAL – Week 6 2025
LA
BAL
LA
AWAY
17@3
LA BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: LA 64%Our line: LA -4.7
LA
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-175
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.206Net EPA / play+0.010
+0.145Offense EPA / play+0.034
-0.061Defense EPA / play+0.024
51.8%Offense success %44.6%
42.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 14. Off by 9.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -355 | +280 |
| Our fair price | -175 | +175 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0 SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4 SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
263.3 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford4707 yd · 46 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1252 yd · 10 TD
B.Corum746 yd · 6 TD
P.Nacua105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua129 rec · 1715 yd · 10 TD
D.Adams60 rec · 789 yd · 14 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@BALW14 2023 | LA 31, BAL 37 | BAL | W |
| LA@BALW17 2021 | LA 20, BAL 19 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 4.7. The market has LA at -7.0.
The model projects 44.7 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, LA 31, BAL 37 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against BAL +0.010.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
