2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ ATL – Week 6 2025
BUF
ATL
BUF
AWAY
14@24
ATL +10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 67%Projected margin: -3.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.5 -- the model overestimated by 13.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@BUFW17 2021 | ATL 15, BUF 29 | BUF | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES