BUF @ ATL – Week 6 2025
BUF
ATL
BUF
AWAY
14@24
ATL BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 67%Our line: BUF -6.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-204
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.136Offense EPA / play-0.021
-0.016Defense EPA / play-0.004
48.5%Offense success %43.7%
42.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 16.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -205 | +170 |
| Our fair price | -204 | +204 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6 SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2 SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@BUFW17 2021 | ATL 15, BUF 29 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. The market has BUF at -3.5.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, MON 7:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, ATL 15, BUF 29 in Week 17 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against ATL -0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
