Bills vs Falcons – Week 6 2025
BUF
ATL
BUF
AWAY
14@24
ATL BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 14, Atlanta Falcons 24.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bills, 4 Falcons.
Model confidence: BUF 67%Our line: BUF -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.136 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (24)
-0.016 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.004 (15)
48.5% (2)Offense success %43.7% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 16.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@BUFW17 2021 | ATL 15, BUF 29 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs ATL
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. The market has BUF at -3.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, BUF 14, ATL 24. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 3.5 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, MON 7:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, ATL 15, BUF 29 in Week 17 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against ATL -0.018.
