2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ BAL – Week 14 2023
LA
BAL
LA
AWAY
31@37
BAL +6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 71%Projected margin: 5.4
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
5.4
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 5.4. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -360 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@BALW6 2025 | LA 17, BAL 3 | LA | W |
| LA@BALW17 2021 | LA 20, BAL 19 | LA | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES