Rams vs Ravens – Week 14 2023
LA
BAL
LA
AWAY
31@37
BAL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 31, Baltimore Ravens 37.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams.
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.215
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
44.7% (8)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 7.4. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@BALW6 2025 | LA 17, BAL 3 | LA | W |
| LA@BALW17 2021 | LA 20, BAL 19 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.4. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, LA 31, BAL 37. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 17, BAL 3 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: LA +0.048 against BAL +0.215.
