Buccaneers vs Falcons – Week 14 2023
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
29@25
TB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29, Atlanta Falcons 25.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Buccaneers, 4 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 62%Our line: ATL -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (26)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (11)
39.6% (27)Offense success %41.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but TB won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 4.0. The market has ATL at -1.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 29, ATL 25. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -1.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 14, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 4.6 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.007 against ATL -0.040.
