2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ ATL – Week 14 2023
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
29@25
TB +4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 62%Projected margin: 2.5
ATL
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
2.5
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but TB won. Projected margin was 2.5 -- the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -125 | Lost · -$1.00 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9SEASON PPR
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES