TB @ ATL – Week 14 2023
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
29@25
TB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 62%Our line: ATL -4.0
ATL
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-161
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.017Offense EPA / play-0.099
-0.024Defense EPA / play-0.059
39.6%Offense success %41.1%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but TB won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +105 | -125 |
| Our fair price | +161 | -161 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
53%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5 SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1 SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Baker Mayfield4044 yd · 28 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rachaad White990 yd · 6 TD
Chase Edmonds176 yd · 0 TD
Baker Mayfield163 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans79 rec · 1255 yd · 13 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.83 rec · 1024 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 4.0. The market has ATL at -1.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.007 against ATL -0.040.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
