Patriots vs Jets – Week 16 2026
NE
NYJ
NE
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Jets at 75% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: NE 75%Our line: NE -9.3
80% range around our line: NYJ by 8 to NE by 27. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -9.3
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
75%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
| SPORTSBOOK | NE | NYJ | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.037
+0.046 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.025 (20)
-0.009 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (5)
45.4% (13)Offense success %42.8% (16)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors NE at 75%.
H2H EDGE
NE has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
NE converts 64% in the red zone vs 40% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.3-point margin.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs NYJ
Our model takes New England Patriots at 75% win probability. The margin models project NE by 9.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 75% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 42, NYJ 10 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.055 against NYJ +0.037.
