NE @ NYJ – Week 16 2026
NE
NYJ
NE
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: NE 80%Projected margin: -9.5
NE
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-9.5
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.274
+0.158Offense EPA / play-0.127
-0.047Defense EPA / play+0.147
48.4%Offense success %40.7%
44.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: NE at 80%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.158 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
NE has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
NE converts 84% in the red zone vs 65% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
NE scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.0 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.5-point margin.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | NE market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye4394 yd · 31 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
T.Henderson911 yd · 9 TD
R.Stevenson603 yd · 7 TD
D.Maye450 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
S.Diggs85 rec · 1013 yd · 4 TD
H.Henry60 rec · 768 yd · 7 TD
K.Boutte33 rec · 551 yd · 6 TD
M.Hollins46 rec · 550 yd · 2 TD
VS
4,394PASSyds1,259
1,964RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | — | NE | — |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs NYJ
Who is favored in New England Patriots at New York Jets?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 80% win probability. The margin models project NE by 9.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New England Patriots and New York Jets play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New England Patriots vs New York Jets game?
New England Patriots, 42-10 in Week 17 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New England Patriots or the New York Jets?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against NYJ -0.274.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
