Browns vs Ravens – Week 16 2026
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Ravens over the Browns at 75% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BAL 75%Our line: BAL -9.2
80% range around our line: CLE by 8 to BAL by 27. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BAL game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -9.2
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
75%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
78%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
| SPORTSBOOK | CLE | BAL | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.058Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.080 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (5)
-0.022 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (16)
39.1% (28)Offense success %50.7% (2)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BAL at 75%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BAL generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. CLE's defense allows -0.022. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
BAL has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against CLE.
RED ZONE
BAL converts 75% in the red zone vs 50% for CLE. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BAL scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.2 for CLE. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.2-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BAL's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
D.Watson1010 yd · 7 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
D.Boston16 rec · 330 yd · 3 TD
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability. The margin models project BAL by 9.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, CLE 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Baltimore Ravens: CLE -0.058 against BAL +0.168.
