Buccaneers vs Falcons – Week 16 2026
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Falcons over the Buccaneers at 68% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: ATL 68%Our line: ATL -6.3
80% range around our line: TB by 11 to ATL by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the ATL game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -6.3
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
ATL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
47%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
| SPORTSBOOK | TB | ATL | ATL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -125 | +105 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.023 (19)
-0.057 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.035 (12)
40.9% (23)Offense success %46.3% (10)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors ATL at 68%.
H2H EDGE
ATL has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against TB.
RED ZONE
ATL converts 86% in the red zone vs 47% for TB. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for ATL. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability. The margin models project ATL by 6.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Atlanta Falcons: TB -0.031 against ATL +0.012.
