TB @ ATL – Week 16 2026
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
ATL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: ATL 67%Projected margin: -4.1
ATL
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.018
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.021
+0.013Defense EPA / play-0.004
42.4%Offense success %43.7%
44.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
ATL is our early forecast in TB @ ATL (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 67.5% confidence and projects ATL by 4.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | ATL market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
S.Shepard39 rec · 371 yd · 1 TD
M.Evans30 rec · 368 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,693PASSyds1,982
1,542RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW8 2026 | — | ATL | — |
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons?
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 67% win probability. The margin models project ATL by 4.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons game?
Atlanta Falcons, 29-28 in Week 15 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Atlanta Falcons?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: TB -0.022 against ATL -0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
