Jaguars vs Cowboys – Week 16 2026
JAX
DAL
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Cowboys at 71% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: JAX 71%Our line: JAX -7.4
80% range around our line: DAL by 10 to JAX by 25. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -7.4
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
40%
DIFFERENCE
+31%
| SPORTSBOOK | JAX | DAL | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +136 | -162 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.239Net EPA / play-0.066
+0.151 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.127 (7)
-0.088 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.193 (32)
46.9% (9)Offense success %47.9% (6)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 71%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. DAL's defense allows 0.193. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.4-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for JAX. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@JAXW15 2022 | DAL 34, JAX 40 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DAL
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 71% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 7.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 71% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, DAL 34, JAX 40 in Week 15 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.239 against DAL -0.066.
