JAX @ DAL – Week 16 2026
JAX
DAL
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 68%Projected margin: -4.1
JAX
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.030Offense EPA / play+0.097
-0.105Defense EPA / play+0.167
44.4%Offense success %46.6%
41.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
JAX is our early forecast in JAX @ DAL (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 68.2% confidence and projects JAX by 4.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | JAX market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
B.Strange46 rec · 540 yd · 3 TD
J.Meyers42 rec · 483 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,007PASSyds4,552
1,773RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@JAXW15 2022 | DAL 34, JAX 40 | DAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DAL
Who is favored in Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 68% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 4.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys game?
Jacksonville Jaguars, 34-40 in Week 15 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Dallas Cowboys?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
