BUF @ DEN – Week 16 2026
BUF
DEN
BUF
AWAY
@
FRI 4:30 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DEN 64%Projected margin: -3.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-3.1
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.136Offense EPA / play+0.050
-0.016Defense EPA / play-0.088
48.5%Offense success %44.2%
42.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our B-tier play in BUF @ DEN (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 64.4% confidence and projects DEN by 3.1. Market spread sits at DEN +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
D.Knox36 rec · 417 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman38 rec · 404 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,668PASSyds3,931
2,475RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BUFW10 2023 | DEN 24, BUF 22 | BUF | L |
| BUF@DENW15 2020 | BUF 48, DEN 19 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs DEN
Who is favored in Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.1. The market has DEN at +1.5.
When do the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, FRI 4:30 PM.
Who won the last Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos game?
Denver Broncos, 24-22 in Week 10 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Buffalo Bills or the Denver Broncos?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
