Bills vs Broncos – Week 16 2026
BUF
DEN
BUF
AWAY
@
FRI 4:30 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Bills at 62% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DEN 62%Our line: DEN -4.1
80% range around our line: BUF by 13 to DEN by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
45%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
| SPORTSBOOK | BUF | DEN | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -132 | +112 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.077Net EPA / play-0.041
+0.210 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
+0.134 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
49.1% (3)Offense success %39.9% (26)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our early forecast in BUF @ DEN (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 62% confidence and projects DEN by 4.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BUFW10 2023 | DEN 24, BUF 22 | BUF | L |
| BUF@DENW15 2020 | BUF 48, DEN 19 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 62% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 4.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 62% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, FRI 4:30 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, BUF 22 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.077 against DEN -0.041.
