Commanders vs Eagles – Week 17 2020
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
20@14
WAS BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 20, Philadelphia Eagles 14.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 9 Eagles.
Model confidence: WAS 55%Our line: WAS -1.8
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -1.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.023Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.067 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.089 (30)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (13)
41.2% (29)Offense success %40.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 6. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PHI
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 1.8. The market has WAS at -6.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 20, PHI 14. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -6.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 17, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 9 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.023 against PHI -0.107.
