2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ HOU – Week 17 2020
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
41@38
TEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 64%Projected margin: -6.7
TEN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-6.7
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 3. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -301 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
344.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
333.1SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
247.5SEASON PPR
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES