2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ TB – Week 17 2020
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
27@44
TB +17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER A
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 66%Projected margin: 6.6
TB
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
6.6
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 17. Off by 10.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -323 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES