Falcons vs Buccaneers – Week 17 2020
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
27@44
TB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 66%Our line: TB -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.042Net EPA / play+0.170
+0.021 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.119 (6)
+0.063 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (6)
43.2% (26)Offense success %45.9% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 17. Off by 11.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project TB by 5.4. The market has TB at -7.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, ATL 27, TB 44. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 17, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 4.0 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ATL -0.042 against TB +0.170.
