Jets vs Patriots – Week 17 2020
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
14@28
NE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 14, New England Patriots 28.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 56%Our line: NE -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.227Net EPA / play-0.076
-0.143 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.004 (21)
+0.084 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.071 (22)
40.2% (31)Offense success %46.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 14. Off by 11.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 2.2. The market has NE at -3.0.
New England Patriots won, NYJ 14, NE 28. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -3.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 4.9 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYJ 19, NE 26 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New England Patriots: NYJ -0.227 against NE -0.076.
