Saints vs Panthers – Week 17 2020
NO
CAR
NO
AWAY
33@7
NO BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 33, Carolina Panthers 7.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 5 Panthers.
Model confidence: NO 67%Our line: NO -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.073
+0.093 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (20)
-0.084 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (24)
47.6% (8)Offense success %45.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 26. Off by 19.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CAR
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 6.1. The market has NO at -6.0.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 33, CAR 7. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -6.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 17, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.9, 1.9 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against CAR -0.073.
