NO @ CAR – Week 17 2020
NO
CAR
NO
AWAY
33@7
NO BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: NO 67%Our line: NO -6.1
NO
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-206
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.073
+0.093Offense EPA / play+0.004
-0.084Defense EPA / play+0.077
47.6%Offense success %45.0%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 26. Off by 19.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -250 | +219 |
| Our fair price | -206 | +206 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
377.8 SEASON PPR
Drew Brees
QB
209.5 SEASON PPR
Emmanuel Sanders
WR
164.8 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara932 yd · 16 TD
Latavius Murray656 yd · 4 TD
Ty Montgomery101 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Alvin Kamara83 rec · 756 yd · 5 TD
Emmanuel Sanders61 rec · 726 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 6.1. The market has NO at -6.0.
The model projects 48.9 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against CAR -0.073.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
