2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ KC – Week 17 2020
LAC
KC
LAC
AWAY
38@21
LAC +17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 70%Projected margin: 9.4
KC
PICK SIDE
+7.0
SPREAD
9.4
PROJ MARGIN
+274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LAC won. Projected margin was 9.4 -- the model overestimated by 26.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +7.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | +274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +244 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
165.3SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES