Vikings vs Lions – Week 17 2020
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
37@35
MIN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 37, Detroit Lions 35.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Vikings, 3 Lions.
Model confidence: MIN 61%Our line: MIN -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.003Net EPA / play-0.208
+0.095 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.005 (22)
+0.098 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.203 (32)
49.2% (5)Offense success %44.3% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.8. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DET
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.8. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 37, DET 35. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Minnesota Vikings were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 8.8 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.003 against DET -0.208.
