Raiders vs Broncos – Week 17 2020
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
32@31
LV BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 32, Denver Broncos 31.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 49%Our line: DEN +0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN +0.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
49%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.085Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
46.5% (11)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LV won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 0.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.2. The market has DEN at +2.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 32, DEN 31. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at +2.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 17, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 2.8 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.085 against DEN -0.147.
