2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ IND – Week 17 2020
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
14@28
IND +14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER S
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 74%Projected margin: 10.4
IND
PICK SIDE
-15.5
SPREAD
10.4
PROJ MARGIN
-931
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 10.4. Actual: 14. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -15.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -931 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1350 | Won · +$0.11 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES