MIA @ BUF – Week 17 2020
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
26@56
BUF BY 30
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 58%Our line: BUF -2.8
BUF
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-140
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.147
+0.007Offense EPA / play+0.164
-0.041Defense EPA / play+0.017
46.0%Offense success %50.2%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 30. Off by 27.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 33.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -153 | +138 |
| Our fair price | +140 | -140 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
41%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
Mike Gesicki53 rec · 703 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.8. The market has BUF at +3.5.
The model projects 47.1 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA +0.048 against BUF +0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
