Ravens vs Bengals – Week 17 2020
BAL
CIN
BAL
AWAY
38@3
BAL BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 38, Cincinnati Bengals 3.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: BAL 68%Our line: BAL -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.180Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.120 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (26)
-0.060 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.092 (26)
45.8% (16)Offense success %43.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 35. Off by 28.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CIN
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.3. The market has BAL at -13.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 38, CIN 3. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -13.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 17, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 1.8 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.180 against CIN -0.141.
