Seahawks vs 49ers – Week 17 2020
SEA
SF
SEA
AWAY
26@23
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2020 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 26, San Francisco 49ers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks, 7 49ers.
Model confidence: SEA 59%Our line: SEA -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -2.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.047Net EPA / play+0.042
+0.087 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.008 (18)
+0.040 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
48.2% (6)Offense success %46.0% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 2.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs SF
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.9. The market has SEA at -7.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 26, SF 23. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -7.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 17, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.5, 3.5 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.047 against SF +0.042.
