Cowboys vs Commanders – Week 18 2022
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
6@26
WAS BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 6, Washington Commanders 26.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 6 Commanders.
Model confidence: DAL 74%Our line: DAL -8.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -8.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.012 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
-0.097 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
44.6% (15)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but WAS won. Projected margin was 8.8, the model overestimated by 28.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs WAS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DAL by 8.8. The market has DAL at -7.5.
Washington Commanders won, DAL 6, WAS 26. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -7.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 18, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.9, 3.4 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against WAS -0.003.
