NYG @ PHI – Week 18 2022
NYG
PHI
NYG
AWAY
16@22
PHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 67%Our line: PHI -6.0
PHI
PICK SIDE
-16.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-205
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.172
+0.030Offense EPA / play+0.107
+0.046Defense EPA / play-0.064
44.9%Offense success %48.3%
43.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 6.0. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.0 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +858 | -1252 |
| Our fair price | +205 | -205 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -16.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.09
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
90%
DIFFERENCE
-23%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
289.0 SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
284.0 SEASON PPR
Richie James
WR
138.5 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Daniel Jones3205 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley1312 yd · 10 TD
Daniel Jones708 yd · 7 TD
Matt Breida220 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton46 rec · 724 yd · 2 TD
Richie James57 rec · 569 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PHIW8 2025 | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW6 2025 | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI | L |
| NYG@PHIW18 2024 | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW7 2024 | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW18 2023 | PHI 10, NYG 27 | PHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.0. The market has PHI at -16.5.
The model projects 43.6 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, NYG 20, PHI 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: NYG -0.016 against PHI +0.172.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
