2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ ATL – Week 18 2022
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
17@30
ATL +13
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 63%Projected margin: -2.5
TB
PICK SIDE
+6.0
SPREAD
-2.5
PROJ MARGIN
+237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 2.5 -- the model overestimated by 15.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +6.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +207 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES