Buccaneers vs Falcons – Week 18 2022
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
17@30
ATL BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17, Atlanta Falcons 30.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Buccaneers, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: TB 63%Our line: TB -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
TB +6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.075
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (14)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.080 (31)
43.8% (20)Offense success %45.5% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 4.7, the model overestimated by 17.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 4.7. The market has TB at +6.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, TB 17, ATL 30. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +6.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 18, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 5.8 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.013 against ATL -0.075.
