2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ SF – Week 18 2022
ARI
SF
ARI
AWAY
13@38
SF +25
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 84%Projected margin: 12.2
SF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
12.2
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 12.2. Actual: 25. Off by 12.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1061 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
156.0SEASON PPR
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
238.4SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
George Kittle
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES