Cardinals vs 49ers – Week 18 2022
ARI
SF
ARI
AWAY
13@38
SF BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 13, San Francisco 49ers 38.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 84% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 8 Cardinals, 5 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 84%Our line: SF -13.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -13.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
84%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.104Net EPA / play+0.211
-0.088 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.085 (4)
+0.016 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.126 (1)
40.6% (26)Offense success %46.2% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 13.4. Actual: 25. Off by 11.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray2368 yd · 14 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
James Conner782 yd · 7 TD
Kyler Murray418 yd · 3 TD
Eno Benjamin299 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins64 rec · 717 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 84% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project SF by 13.4. The market has SF at -14.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, ARI 13, SF 38. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 84% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -14.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 18, the Arizona Cardinals were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 5.0 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: ARI -0.104 against SF +0.211.
