Vikings vs Bears – Week 18 2022
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
29@13
MIN BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 29, Chicago Bears 13.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Vikings, 3 Bears.
Model confidence: MIN 77%Our line: MIN -9.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -9.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.164
-0.011 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.046 (23)
+0.012 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (32)
44.9% (13)Offense success %40.5% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 9.8. Actual: 16. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
2 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CHI
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIN by 9.8. The market has MIN at -6.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 29, CHI 13. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -6.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 18, the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 2.5 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against CHI -0.164.
