2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ NO – Week 18 2022
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
10@7
CAR +3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 62%Projected margin: 2.5
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but CAR won. Projected margin was 2.5 -- the model overestimated by 5.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -179 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
RB
118.0SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES