Panthers vs Saints – Week 18 2022
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
10@7
CAR BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 10, New Orleans Saints 7.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 62%Our line: NO -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.035 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.003 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
40.7% (25)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but CAR won. Projected margin was 4.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 4.1. The market has NO at -3.5.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 10, NO 7. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 4.6 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: CAR -0.037 against NO +0.018.
