Jets vs Dolphins – Week 18 2022
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
6@11
MIA BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 6, Miami Dolphins 11.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jets, 4 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 66%Our line: MIA -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.036Net EPA / play+0.039
-0.087 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
39.0% (30)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 5.6. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.6. The market has MIA at -3.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NYJ 6, MIA 11. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 8.4 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: NYJ -0.036 against MIA +0.039.
