2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ LV – Week 18 2022
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
31@13
KC +18
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER A
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 71%Projected margin: -5.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-9.0
SPREAD
-5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-365
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 18. Off by 12.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -365 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -407 | Won · +$0.27 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES