2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ DEN – Week 18 2022
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
28@31
DEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✓
Model confidence: LAC 78%Projected margin: -8.1
LAC
PICK SIDE
+6.0
SPREAD
-8.1
PROJ MARGIN
+237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A+-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DEN won. Projected margin was 8.1 -- the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +6.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | +237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +222 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
WR
176.5SEASON PPR
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES