Chargers vs Broncos – Week 18 2022
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
28@31
DEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 28, Denver Broncos 31.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: LAC 78%Our line: LAC -10.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC +6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -10.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.060
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
44.1% (18)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A+-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DEN won. Projected margin was 10.3, the model overestimated by 13.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LAC by 10.3. The market has LAC at +6.0.
Denver Broncos won, LAC 28, DEN 31. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at +6.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 18, the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 8.8 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against DEN -0.060.
