Texans vs Colts – Week 18 2022
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
32@31
HOU BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 32, Indianapolis Colts 31.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: HOU 50%Our line: HOU +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.141
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
36.9% (32)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 0.0. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
Our model takes Houston Texans at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 0.0. The market has HOU at +3.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 32, IND 31. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at +3.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 18, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 6.8 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Indianapolis Colts: HOU -0.192 against IND -0.141.
