2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ JAX – Week 18 2022
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
16@20
JAX +4
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER A
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 73%Projected margin: 6.5
JAX
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
6.5
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 6.5. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -260 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
117.7SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES