Titans vs Jaguars – Week 18 2022
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
16@20
JAX BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 16, Jacksonville Jaguars 20.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Titans.
Model confidence: JAX 73%Our line: JAX -8.4
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -8.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.067
-0.059 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (8)
+0.004 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.021 (13)
41.1% (22)Offense success %46.3% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 8.4. Actual: 4. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project JAX by 8.4. The market has JAX at -6.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, TEN 16, JAX 20. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -6.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 18, the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 7.4 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: TEN -0.064 against JAX +0.067.
