Browns vs Steelers – Week 18 2022
CLE
PIT
CLE
AWAY
14@28
PIT BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 14, Pittsburgh Steelers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Browns, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 67%Our line: PIT -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.012
+0.012 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (12)
+0.014 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (26)
44.0% (19)Offense success %45.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 14. Off by 7.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 6.1. The market has PIT at -2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CLE 14, PIT 28. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 18, the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 5.3 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.001 against PIT -0.012.
