Patriots vs Bills – Week 18 2022
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
23@35
BUF BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 23, Buffalo Bills 35.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: BUF 76%Our line: BUF -9.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -9.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
40.9% (24)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 9.7. Actual: 12 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
COLD GAME
30°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
30°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.7. The market has BUF at -8.0.
Buffalo Bills won, NE 23, BUF 35. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -8.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 8.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 1.4 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: NE +0.035 against BUF +0.168.
