2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ CIN – Week 18 2022
BAL
CIN
BAL
AWAY
16@27
CIN +11
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: CIN 70%Projected margin: 5.2
CIN
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
5.2
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 11. Off by 5.8 points but directionally right.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+11.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -603 | Won · +$0.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
116.1SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES