Ravens vs Bengals – Week 18 2022
BAL
CIN
BAL
AWAY
16@27
CIN BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 18
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 16, Cincinnati Bengals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: CIN 70%Our line: CIN -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -7.2
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.019Net EPA / play+0.125
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (5)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.048 (10)
45.3% (11)Offense success %47.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 11. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-11.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 7.2. The market has CIN at -11.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, BAL 16, CIN 27. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -11.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 18, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 6.0 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: BAL +0.019 against CIN +0.125.
