WAS @ JAX – Week 17 2026
WAS
JAX
WAS
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: JAX 77%Projected margin: -8.8
JAX
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-8.8
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.005Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.142Defense EPA / play-0.105
45.6%Offense success %44.4%
47.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 77%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.030 EPA/play on offense. WAS's defense allows 0.142. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.8-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for JAX. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | JAX market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
Z.Ertz50 rec · 504 yd · 4 TD
J.Lane16 rec · 225 yd · 0 TD
VS
1,695PASSyds4,007
1,602RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@WASW1 2022 | JAX 22, WAS 28 | WAS | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs JAX
Who is favored in Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 77% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 8.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Washington Commanders and Jacksonville Jaguars play?
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?
Washington Commanders, 22-28 in Week 1 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the Jacksonville Jaguars?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: WAS -0.137 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
