Broncos vs Patriots – Week 17 2026
DEN
NE
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Patriots at 50% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DEN 50%Our line: DEN +0.0
80% range around our line: NE by 17 to DEN by 17. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN +0.0
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
45%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SPORTSBOOK | DEN | NE | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +114 | -135 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 17 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.041Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.066 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (11)
-0.025 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (17)
39.9% (26)Offense success %45.4% (13)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our early forecast in DEN @ NE (Week 17, 2026). The model assigns 50% confidence and projects NE by 0.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@DENW16 2023 | NE 26, DEN 23 | DEN | L |
| DEN@NEW6 2020 | DEN 18, NE 12 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NE
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 50% win probability. The margin models project NE by 0.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 50% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 26, DEN 23 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: DEN -0.041 against NE +0.055.
