DEN @ NE – Week 17 2026
DEN
NE
DEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NE 61%Projected margin: -1.5
NE
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.205
+0.050Offense EPA / play+0.158
-0.088Defense EPA / play-0.047
44.2%Offense success %48.4%
36.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
NE is our early forecast in DEN @ NE (Week 17, 2026). The model assigns 60.6% confidence and projects NE by 1.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | NE market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
E.Engram50 rec · 461 yd · 1 TD
P.Bryant31 rec · 378 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,931PASSyds4,394
1,668RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@DENW16 2023 | NE 26, DEN 23 | DEN | L |
| DEN@NEW6 2020 | DEN 18, NE 12 | NE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NE
Who is favored in Denver Broncos at New England Patriots?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 61% win probability. The margin models project NE by 1.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots play?
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game?
New England Patriots, 26-23 in Week 16 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Denver Broncos or the New England Patriots?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: DEN +0.138 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
