LV @ ARI – Week 17 2026
LV
ARI
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
ARI
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: ARI 62%Projected margin: -1.6
ARI
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.215Offense EPA / play-0.018
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.088
37.6%Offense success %43.0%
45.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: ARI at 62%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
ARI generates -0.018 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
ARI converts 78% in the red zone vs 61% for LV. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
ARI scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in ARI's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | ARI market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
J.Meyers33 rec · 352 yd · 0 TD
A.Jeanty55 rec · 346 yd · 5 TD
VS
3,025PASSyds3,366
1,188RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LVW2 2022 | ARI 29, LV 23 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs ARI
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders at Arizona Cardinals?
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 62% win probability. The margin models project ARI by 1.6. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals play?
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals game?
Arizona Cardinals, 29-23 in Week 2 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Las Vegas Raiders or the Arizona Cardinals?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Arizona Cardinals: LV -0.240 against ARI -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
