NFL WEEK 17 2026 PREDICTIONS & PICKS

Q: Who is the safest NFL pick in Week 17 2026?

Our safest Week 17 2026 pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Washington Commanders, at 81% win probability.

Q: Which Week 17 2026 NFL games are toss-ups?

No game in Week 17 2026 is a coin flip on our model; every pick clears 55% win probability.

Q: What are NoPunt's Week 17 2026 NFL picks?

NoPunt's model picks every game of Week 17, 2026, tier-graded from S (strongest) to C, with a win probability, predicted margin and spread for each. See the full slate on this page.

Q: What is the safest NFL survivor pick for Week 17?

For survivor pools, our model's safest Week 17 pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Washington Commanders, at 81% win probability.

16 GAMES

UPDATED NOV 9, 2026

THE SHORT ANSWER

Our most confident Week 17 pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Washington Commanders, at 81% win probability.

No game on the Week 17 slate is a coin flip; every pick clears 55% win probability.

For survivor pools, the safest pick of the week is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Washington Commanders, at 81% win probability.

Before kickoff

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Wednesday: our pick and win probability for every game, before kickoff. Tuesday: how they did, wins and losses. Unsubscribe anytime.

← W16 2026 ALL RESULTS W18 2026→

PROEvery pick's read, side, tier, win probability, spread, is free. The Edge (the games we flag as bets) and Kelly sizing are Pro.

EARLY FORECAST · no betting lines are posted for this week yet. These are model projections, not graded picks, and they regenerate every Wednesday.

FILTER

LINE NOT POSTED

WAS @ JAX

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

JAX

CONF

81%

LINE NOT POSTED

PHI @ SF

SUN 8:20 PM

PICK

CONF

81%

LINE NOT POSTED

BUF @ MIA

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

BUF

CONF

79%

LINE NOT POSTED

PIT @ TEN

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

PIT

CONF

77%

LINE NOT POSTED

MIN @ NYJ

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

MIN

CONF

76%

LINE NOT POSTED

BAL @ CIN

THU 8:15 PM

PICK

CIN

CONF

72%

LINE NOT POSTED

KC @ LAC

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

CONF

72%

LINE NOT POSTED

SEA @ CAR

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

SEA

CONF

70%

LINE NOT POSTED

LAR @ TB

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

CONF

68%

LINE NOT POSTED

DET @ CHI

SUN 4:25 PM

PICK

CHI

CONF

65%

LINE NOT POSTED

IND @ CLE

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

CLE

CONF

64%

LINE NOT POSTED

NO @ ATL

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

ATL

CONF

62%

LINE NOT POSTED

NYG @ DAL

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

DAL

CONF

61%

LINE NOT POSTED

DEN @ NE

SUN 1:00 PM

PICK

DEN

CONF

62%

LINE NOT POSTED

HOU @ GB

MON 8:15 PM

PICK

CONF

61%

LINE NOT POSTED

LV @ ARI

SUN 4:05 PM

PICK

ARI

CONF

59%

QUESTIONS

Who is the safest NFL pick in Week 17 2026?

Which Week 17 2026 NFL games are toss-ups?

What are NoPunt's Week 17 2026 NFL picks?

What is the safest NFL survivor pick for Week 17?

WHAT CHANGED SINCE WEDNESDAY

Lions at Bears: win probability moved from 65% to 66%.
Commanders at Jaguars: tier moved from S to A+.
Chiefs at Chargers: win probability moved from 71% to 71%; tier moved from A to B.
Broncos at Patriots: pick moved from Patriots (62%) to Broncos (50%); tier moved from B to C.
Commanders at Jaguars: win probability moved from 79% to 79%; tier moved from A+ to S.
Commanders at Jaguars: win probability moved from 79% to 79%; tier moved from S to A+.
Ravens at Bengals: win probability moved from 59% to 66%; tier moved from C to B.
Seahawks at Panthers: win probability moved from 61% to 69%; tier moved from C to B.
Vikings at Jets: win probability moved from 76% to 77%; tier moved from A to A+.
Lions at Bears: win probability moved from 66% to 64%.
Eagles at 49ers: win probability moved from 78% to 75%.
Texans at Packers: win probability moved from 58% to 50%.
Bills at Dolphins: win probability moved from 77% to 75%; tier moved from A+ to A.
Saints at Falcons: win probability moved from 63% to 67%.
Rams at Buccaneers: win probability moved from 66% to 64%.
Colts at Browns: win probability moved from 62% to 65%; tier moved from C to B.
Giants at Cowboys: pick moved from Cowboys (61%) to Giants (50%).
Chiefs at Chargers: win probability moved from 71% to 68%.
Broncos at Patriots: win probability moved from 50% to 58%.
Steelers at Titans: win probability moved from 72% to 75%.
Eagles at 49ers: win probability moved from 75% to 77%.
Giants at Cowboys: pick moved from Giants (50%) to Cowboys (62%).
Seahawks at Panthers: win probability moved from 69% to 71%.
Texans at Packers: win probability moved from 50% to 61%; tier moved from C to B.
Ravens at Bengals: win probability moved from 66% to 70%.
Seahawks at Panthers: win probability moved from 71% to 71%; tier moved from B to A.
Vikings at Jets: win probability moved from 76% to 74%; tier moved from A+ to A.
Eagles at 49ers: win probability moved from 77% to 78%.
Bills at Dolphins: win probability moved from 76% to 78%; tier moved from A to A+.
Colts at Browns: win probability moved from 65% to 64%.
Giants at Cowboys: win probability moved from 62% to 61%.
Commanders at Jaguars: win probability moved from 79% to 78%.
Chiefs at Chargers: win probability moved from 68% to 66%.
Broncos at Patriots: win probability moved from 58% to 50%.
Steelers at Titans: win probability moved from 75% to 77%; tier moved from A to A+.
Seahawks at Panthers: win probability moved from 71% to 67%; tier moved from A to B.
Lions at Bears: win probability moved from 63% to 66%.
Ravens at Bengals: win probability moved from 70% to 71%; tier moved from B to A.
Commanders at Jaguars: win probability moved from 77% to 80%.
Ravens at Bengals: win probability moved from 71% to 72%.
Seahawks at Panthers: win probability moved from 67% to 70%.
Vikings at Jets: win probability moved from 74% to 76%.
Eagles at 49ers: win probability moved from 78% to 81%; tier moved from A+ to S.
Texans at Packers: win probability moved from 61% to 61%; tier moved from B to C.
Bills at Dolphins: win probability moved from 78% to 79%.
Saints at Falcons: win probability moved from 67% to 62%.
Rams at Buccaneers: win probability moved from 64% to 68%.
Giants at Cowboys: win probability moved from 61% to 61%; tier moved from C to B.
Commanders at Jaguars: win probability moved from 80% to 81%; tier moved from A+ to S.
Chiefs at Chargers: win probability moved from 66% to 72%; tier moved from B to A.
Broncos at Patriots: win probability moved from 50% to 62%.
Raiders at Cardinals: win probability moved from 60% to 59%; tier moved from B to C.

SURVIVORSafest pick: Jacksonville Jaguars over Washington Commanders, 81% win probability.FULL SURVIVOR BOARD →

Before kickoff

Get every week's picks by email, free

Wednesday: our pick and win probability for every game, before kickoff. Tuesday: how they did, wins and losses. Unsubscribe anytime.

ALL-TIME RECORD1158-586-6every pick since 2020, 2020-2025 a walk-forward backtest.SEASON-BY-SEASON →

NOPUNT PRO

Get this week's Edge plays

The Edge picks. The games our model flags as bets each week, with unit sizing set to your own unit.
The Board and line movement. Our number beside every book's, sorted by how far apart they are, with the price history behind each one.
Survivor planner and tracker. Our pick from the teams you have left, and a path to Week 18 that spends the rest in the right order.
Player prop projections. Per-player projections with a matchup grade on each, for every game on the slate.

Every pick on the site, 2026 so far: 88-46-1 straight up (captured before kickoff). See every pick

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