IND @ CLE – Week 17 2026
IND
CLE
IND
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 17 · 2026 SEASON
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: IND 61%Projected margin: -0.2
IND
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-0.2
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.072Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.096
46.3%Offense success %34.5%
45.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: IND at 61%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
IND generates 0.072 EPA/play on offense. CLE's defense allows -0.096. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
IND goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
IND converts 95% in the red zone vs 67% for CLE. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
IND scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.0 for CLE. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in IND's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | IND market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
M.Pittman80 rec · 784 yd · 7 TD
J.Downs58 rec · 566 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,101PASSyds1,400
1,845RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@INDW7 2023 | CLE 39, IND 38 | CLE | W |
| IND@CLEW5 2020 | IND 23, CLE 32 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs CLE
Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns?
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability. The margin models project IND by 0.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns play?
Week 17 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns game?
Cleveland Browns, 39-38 in Week 7 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Indianapolis Colts or the Cleveland Browns?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.068 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
